They are particularly fond of betting on favorites and overs. The betting public, on the whole, are long-term losers at betting sports. Although these bets may seem like “safe” wagers, the reality is that they are far riskier than they look. It’s nearly 67% at that price and is at 80% at -400. As we approach -200, the breakeven percentage goes up quite a bit. If you take a look at the above table, it’s easy to see why. There are plenty of times that a big favorite is worth wagering on, but this isn’t something that bettors want to do too often. Betting Moneylines – Be Careful With Large Favorites Bookmakers have added modified point spread odds to both these sports in MLB run lines and NHL puck lines, respectively, but the majority of the betting action is still being wagered on moneylines. MLB and NHL odds are traditionally offered in moneyline format. Line shopping is still paramount, but, depending on the sport you’re betting, there are times where taking the moneyline over the point spread is a +EV proposition. Moneyline wagering needs to be looked at differently compared to point spread wagering. Below is a table of the most common moneyline odds up to -200 and +200 and their corresponding breakeven percentages. Likewise, the Phillies aren’t worth a gamble if we don’t think they can win at least 32% of the time. For instance, we shouldn’t bet the Cubs if we don’t like they have a better than 70% chance to win the game. It’s also a way to decide if you’re going to place a wager. It’s not necessary to calculate it for every wager, but it’s an excellent way to view the actual winning percentage needed to earn a profit on each bet. Figuring out the implied probability odds when betting moneyline lines is something that few do before deciding to place a wager. That means, we only need to win our bet about 32% of the time to break even when betting on the Phillies. However, you should analyze each game independently looking for value in both favorite and underdog moneylines.We can calculate the breakeven percentage: In general, I think this means taking higher upside picks, such as underdogs rather than taking large favorites. There is no magic formula for moneyline betting, you’ll simply need to pick your spots wisely and balance your risk versus your potential reward. They will safely bet the point spread because they feel the game will be close, but will also put themselves in line for a nice payday if the underdog wins straight-up. In cases when there is a point spread and moneyline offered on an event, such as an NFL football game, many bettors will place a wager on the moneyline and point spread of an underdog they feel has a chance to pull the upset.
If you can spot upsets even decently well, moneyline wagers on underdogs can be profitable bets. For a +300 wager, you only need to win 25% of the time to break even. Upsets happen more often than some of us think and moneyline betting is a great way to take advantage.įor example, for a moneyline wager of +250, you only need to win about 28% of the time to break even. On the other hand, underdog moneylines can be lucrative wagering opportunities. We try to stay away from large favorite moneylines, because the amount you must risk is very high and the payoff is low. You are risking a lot to win very little and even though a large favorite will win most of the time, when they do lose, you will find yourself out a lot of money. When your odds jump even higher to -400, you’ll need to win your bet 80% of the time to show a profit. On a moneyline bet of -300, you’ll need to win your bet 75% of the time just to break even. Moneyline betting can be tough to tackle for some bettors, but it is truly a balance of risk vs reward.įor instance, a large favorite of -300 or more is most likely to win going to win their matchup, but that large price means you’ll be risking a lot for a small payout. If you placed the same $100 on the Bills and they caused a surprise upset, your return would be $285. To win $100 by backing the Patriots, you must risk $330. The Patriots are massive favorites in this AFC East matchup. Buffalo Bills +285 vs New England Patriots -330
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